File: c:/ddc/Angel/BestIntentions/Population.html
Date: Thu Jan 08 19:23:17 2009
Fri Jan 08 21:20:35 2010
(C) OntoOO/ Dennis de Champeaux
Six billion people and more
One thing is certain: humanity's happiness in the future depends on
the solution of the population problem.
(Nathan Keyfitz)
Fast growth of the population
Eight thousand year ago - at the beginning of the Neolithicum when
agriculture emerged - the world population was 1 million; 1000BC there
were 30M, while in the year 1 it had grown to 225M.
It took until around 1800 before the first
billion was reached. A century later the tally was 1.6B. The next
half billion took only 30 years. The acceleration at the end of the
19th century was triggered by hygiene and the impact of the industrial
revolution. The next table describes the more recent developments.
| 1800 |
First 1B mile stone |
| 1900 |
1.5B |
| 1930 |
2B |
| 1960 |
3B |
| 1972 |
MIT's Limits to Growth world simulation predicts a calamity in
the 21st century due to the combination of population growth,
environmental degradation and the exhaustion of resources [Meadows] |
| 1980 |
4.4B. The world's capacity to feed the population without
fertilizer (dependent on oil) is surpassed [Meadows2] |
| 1987 |
5B |
| 1999 October 12 |
6B |
| 2006 |
Worldwide acceptance that climate change is real and has had
already disastrous consequences [Gore] |
The U.N. expects that the populations of the 50 least developed
nations will double in the next 50 years, while the poorest will
triple. [The U.N. reports that the growth rate of the 50 least
developed nations entails doubling of the population in 50 years,
while tripling or quadrupling for the poorest ones. Niger doubles
every 22 years.] They would have a population of 1.7B. Further
additions to the world population at a rate of 1B every 12-15 years
would produce around 10B in 2050.
We will focus on the US and the Netherlands (NL). They show also
substantial growths, however the rates can vary. We include the US
blacks as a separate category:
The population of the US and the NL in millions
| Year | US | US Blacks | NL |
|---|
| 1790 | 4.0 | -- | 2.0 |
| 1850 | 23.5 | 4.5 (1860/5) | 3.5 |
| 1900 | 76.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 |
| 1950 | 150.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| 2000 | 281.0 | 36.0 | 16.0 |
Data from: Bureau of the Census, US and CBS, NL.
The US absorbed in the 19th century and during the first half of the
20th century a large amount of immigrants. Its absorption capacity
was reduced after WW2. This contributed to a world wide increase of
refugees. By 2001 there were 12M refugees and 25M who had fled their
residences, but still residing in their own countries.
Population policy
People have been more concerned about a decrease of the population due
to famines, epidemics and wars than about overpopulation [Sauvy]. The
situation changed around 1850 due to a relentless growth from then on.
Malthus had already observed in 1800 that an exponential population
growth was not compatible with an arithmetic increase of an
agricultural output (because the yield per laborer decreases)
[Malthus]. However, it took one and half century before demographers
started to worry about the population growth. They decided
initially that nothing could be done about it and even that
nothing should be done about it.
A leading notion was that an increase in the standard of living would
initially lead to a higher survival rate of children but subsequently
people would restrict their fertility. The world population reached
3B in 1960 and demographers started reconsidering the situation.
Development should not restrict population growth, but a smaller
population became a condition for economic development. This turn
around was spear-headed by Ehrlich's 1968 "The Population Bomb"
[Ehrlich], which became a bestseller. The book contained explicit
predictions about famines, diseases, pollution and political chaos to
occur in the 1970-1985 time frame, which turned out to be erroneous.
These failures fueled a counter movement claiming that human ingenuity
would address the effects of further population growth. As shown
above, the world population did double again and is still growing
rapidly.
Family planning: the goals
President Kennedy took in 1961 the initiative to create USAID, the US
Agency for International Development. Its mandate was to improve
health and the food supply in underdeveloped countries in order to
decrease population growth. This agency was in the 80-ies and 90-ies
the largest donor in the world. The agency claims that at the end of
the 90-ies 50M couples used some form of fertility control [Rengel].
Family planning has reduced fertility since the 60-ies in most
underdeveloped countries from 6-7 to 3. However, the poor still get
six children in the 50 most poorest countries. The demand
for contraception is expected to grow with 40% in the next 15 years,
but funds are decreasing.
The Millenium Top convened in 2000 and agreed on ambitious, measurable
goals to be achieved by 2015:
- Extreme poverty and hunger is eliminated
- All children attend school
- Man and women have equal rights
- Children mortality has decreased substantially
- Less woman die due to pregnancy
- The spreading of diseases like AIDS and malaria has stopped
- More people live in sustainable conditions
- There is more fair trade, debt cancellation and help
What has been achieved thusfar? Below an evaluation of some items as
provided by [UNFPA]:
| Poverty |
4B survive on less than $2/day |
| Hunger |
852M people are undernourished, among which 300M children.
Every year 11M children die before their 5th year |
| Diseases |
40M people are infected every year with HIV. 3M people died in
2004 due to AIDS (0.5M were younger than 15 year). AIDS is the top
cause of death in the Sub Sahara countries |
| Education |
114M children do not get education. 584M woman are
an-alphabetic |
Here more regional developments:
- China: 53M woman are missing due to preferences for males
- Latin America and the Caribbean: 40% is poor and 20% is very poor.
[The CIA database does not define poverty; they admit: Definitions
of poverty vary considerably among nations.] There is a huge
gap between the number of children that poor woman bear and the
desired number
- Sub Sahara: the population more than doubled between 1975 and 2005
from 335M to 751M and in spite of AIDS, famines, wars and political
instability may pass the 1B mark in 2025
- Middle East: The 2003 population of 270M may increase to 370M by
2020. The large number of young males without a clear future will be
a danger for the stability of the world
- The West: The native population is decreasing, especially in
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
- Japan: The population has started to decline while immigration of
foreign workers remains minimal
Family planning failure
The assessment by Ehrlich in 1970 of the activities to promote birth
control was very negative. His critique on the birth control programs
became more accepted twenty years later. The execution of the
programs was more important than the health of the women. The USAID
wanted to reach their goals and therefore worked together with local
authorities, which put women under pressure. Epstein [Epstein]
describes in an artcle "The Strange History of Birth Control" how the
USAID implemented their programs and confirms the assessment of
Ehrlich. There was an unmistakable progress but in many countries the
programs were unpopular with the women they wanted to reach.
Programs with implementation targets were ended in 1994. Not only the
health of the women had to be a priority in the execution of the
programs, but also their own wish for bearing children. This was
stated at an international UN-conference about population and
development in that year. The right for each woman to have the
children she wished was also explicitly adopted.
The Philippines, a ticking time bomb
The Philippines are an example of the consequences of the reduction of
the USAID budget exacerbated due to its religion. It has a population
of 96M with a growth rate of 2%. The poorest 20% have 6-7 children,
while the richest 20% have 2 children. Half a million woman a year
risk their lives to have an illegal abortion. The Government passed a
law allowing the use of contraceptives, which 70% of the population
were in favor of, according to a 2007 poll. The Roman Catholic
Church, however, tries to block the use of contraceptives. Civil
servants using it are denied the Sacred Communion [Time]. The
government of Manilla accommodated the Church in 2000 by prohibiting
contraceptives in the city.
The USAID will terminate its activities after 30 years at the end of
2009. The country's family planning needs will have to be self
sufficient by then [Reuter].
Newer problems
The population topic is pushed aside by newer problems: pollution,
energy and food shortages, global warming, spreading of new viruses
against which we have no protection, epidemics in livestock, wars,
which are caused by the rapid population increases. All these topics
demand more and more attention. The yield of family planning would be
spectacular in the Sub Sahara, but funds are decreasing due to being
diverted to deal with AIDS [DEMOS].
Right to children?
Ten percent of Ethiopia's 80M people are now dependent for their food
on international assistance. Doubling of the population is projected
for 2050. Those needing assistance would be at least 16M. Should we
stop sending food? Should we add conditions to sending it? Which
conditions? The country itself is not able to restrict its population
growth and Western donor countries cut the budget. The medical
improvements, which keep more people alife than the country can feed,
have destroyed an equilibrium of centuries.
The primitive human is passive [...] If the wildlife he depends
on moves on, or the yield of fruits and plants disappoints,
famine gets close. A solution is to enter the territory of the
neighbors. Resulting wars in combination with starvation produce
a level that is again in harmony with the circumstances. This
process resembles how in Nature plants and animals thrive and
wither, although primitives have alternatives. Birth control
through abortion is one of the few aspects of medical knowledge in
which they excelled. Killing of the elderly, abandoning of
infants, cannibalism, head hunting, the mandate to kill an enemy
before being allowed to marry, these all are solutions to
population pressures. Magic motives for these practices were
invented later.[Hermans]
These solutions do not fit the Millennium goals and when we offer help,
the first condition is to abandon them. However, when rapid progress
subsequently explodes the population, which then blocks further
progress, we are stymied and are forced to provide external support to
prevent starvation.
It was decided in 1994 that people have the right to have the number
of children they want. China's one-child policy is considered to be a
blessing for China and for the world but at the same time it is
considered barbaric and not compatible with the Western
individualistic society.
Ehrlich considered the so called undeniable right to the number of
wanted children questionable. It is easy to list numerous other
rights that are hampered by unrestricted offspring like: clean air,
clean water, silence, etc. which are for him, his children and
grandchildren of great importance.
Ecologic footprint
The total available soil in the world available for human use is about
1500 m2 (= 1800 yard2). The world population living the lifestyle of
an American requires over 6 Earths, while the Dutch lifestyle's
equivalent is 3 Earths. Ehrlich described the situation with the
formula:
I = P * A * T,
where I is the impact on the environment, P is
the population, A is the consumption level and T is the technology
factor, which stands for the negative impact of technology on the
ecology. Which knob to turn to reduce the impact on the environment?
We discussed already our inability to reduce population growth, let
alone population decline. Reducing the consumption level is done by
a few eccentric individuals who do not consume meat, use electricity
from solar panels, minimize throw away products and do not drive a
car. Their example would have a major impact if only not eating meat
would be joined by all. Al Gore asks everyone to reduce the use of
energy, and walk and bike more instead of driving a car.
After hundred years of building more roads and tunnels the problem
is getting worse, but no one is able to reverse the trend.
Emerging economies are keen to follow the Western patterns: eat meat
and drive a car. China build in 2008 hundred coal fired power plants.
They are increasing their footprint and it will not take them hundred
years to match the West. Migration to the cities, yielding a similar
misery as what happened in the West in the 19th century, increases the
footprint further. Migrants to the West adopt, of course, the
lifestyle of their new host country.
Summary
The world population keeps growing fast and is the (indirect) cause of
problems like food, energy, famine, refugees, etc.
Food assistance to overpopulated regions is a humanitarian necessity,
which causes the population to increase even further. The necessity
of assistance is unquestionable, the consequences are avoided by the
media and by the politicians.
Family planning works for those woman who are developed to a level
where they can restrict their offspring without a programme. The
other woman - the crucial one's - are very difficult to reach by any
programme.
Politicians, the media and those who deliver care avoid the population
problem. Real results cannot be achieved without coming in conflict
with 'intrinsic rights'. Having children is a fundamental right on
secular ground and a present from God from a religious perspective.
The latter allow only abstention.
Al Gore has explained to a world wide audience the consequences for
the environment of the Western life style. However, he does not
address the population problem (except the hockey stick graph on
page 216-217 and the sentence: "We have a moral obligation to take into
account this dramatic change in terms of the relationship between our
species and the planet.")
The hidden assumption
Whether having children is a fundamental right and/or a present from
God does not matter when we ask where the money is coming from to feed
them, care for their health, their education, etc. Parent's
responsibility for these expenditures has decreased very slowly in the
20e century to the point that majorities are now dependent on
assistance, as we have described in more detail in the preceeding
chapters. Consequently, an economic decline reduces tax revenues and
thereby has immediate impact on the services on which the population
relies.
A parallel development can be seen at the international level. The
population of whole nations became dependent on international aid.
Problems in donor countries will break this dependency, while
recipients are not yet self sufficient.
References
[Ehrlich] Paul R. Ehrlich, "De bevolkingsexplosie", Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1971.
[Meadows] Meadows, D, "The Limits to Growth", Universe Books, NY, 1972.
[Meadows2] Meadows, D., J. Randers & D. Meadows, "Limits to Growth,
The 30-Year Update", Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004.
[Sauvy] Sauvy, A. "Nulgroei?", Utrecht, 1975.
[Rengel] Rengel, M., Encyclopedia of Birth Control.
[Epstein] Epstein, Helen, The strange history of birth control, New
York Review of Books, Volume 55, numer 13, August 14, 2008.
[Reuter] Reuter Wednesday July 11, 5:22 PM Condom, pill shortage risks
Philippine birth control.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070711/3/34mhw.html
[Time] The Philippines' Birth Control Battle By Emily Rauhala/Manila
Friday, Jun. 06, 2008.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1812250,00.html
[UNPFA] UNPFA, http://www.unfpa.org/
[DEMOS] Alinda Bosch, 'Weinig optimisme over millenniumdoelen', DEMOS,
jrg. 21, september 2005.
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