File: c:/ddc/Angel/Tragedy/Prologue.html
Date: 2011/ 2012/ 2018/ 2019
(C) OntoOO/ Dennis de Champeaux

Prologue

We have met the enemy and he is us.
(Walt Kelly/ Pogo strip 1971)

Why?

We have great admiration for the System's books by Dennis Meadows and his co-authors and by the anthropologist Jared Diamond. The former extrapolates, through a complex simulation model, the trends in the world from 1900-1970 to what may happen in the 21st century. The latter describes societies from the deep past up to contemporary time (2005) and suggests parallels with the world's future. We disagree with the often taken position that the Dennis Meadows World3 model has been invalidated, if not for the simple reason that the real actions in the model unfold after 2030. Hence this text is a reminder of their pioneering work.

Our time frame is not the here and now, but parallels the Meadows's time range: we analyze the 20th century with selected dimensions - in more depth than Diamond and Meadows - and provide intrinsic, deeper support for the scenarios that they envision.

The Durant couple spend their life on writing history books. Late in life - when most people are retired or dead - they wrote "The Lessons of History" after rereading their books covering 5000 years. We feel obliged to incorporate their wisdom in our portrayal of the 20th century regarding the fate of the current welfare state, which - it turns out - has been tried out many times before.

Yet another unintended side effect of the exponential processes we witness is the accelerated anthropogenic impact on the biosphere as described by Kolbert in the "Sixth Extinction".

A detail where we deviate: we do not try to please the reader with a final chapter in which we declare that we have hope. Hope is a quite subjective personal affair and we leave it to our readers to make up their own minds. Having hope or not is actually quite irrelevant. A reasoned commitment to action is preferred.

How?

Since our aims are clearly substantial, a valid question is how we can pull off our goals. The classical answer is to stand on the shoulders of our predecessors. Herrnstein & Murray and Pinker, among others, have been essential to get a grip on the 20th century. Diamond and Meadows have been shaping crucial, plausible scenarios for this century. Other predecessors are all the anonymous individuals and their organizations, who have provided a cornucopia of statistical data. The point here is that this text is not simply a bundle of personal opinions.

We started out with questions that had been lingering for decades because there was never an opportunity to investigate them. Finally, we got more time. Initial clarifications led to other questions. Hence we did not start out with a main thesis for which we gathered supporting evidence; this can be seen as a 'bottom up' approach.

Statistical data is too often attacked - while assertions without data is often rejected because there is no supporting evidence. We believe that our data is solid, coming from reputable, mentioned, sources. Were we biased in selecting the sources and hand-picked the data? When we found a trend in the US, we looked whether the same trend occurred in the Netherlands, a country that varies widely on many dimensions. Explaining more our carefulness we avoid. We rely on the judgment of the reader to assess our lack of an 'agenda'.

A reward?

This text is definitely not funny - although the chosen pictures may help out. The reward is elsewhere. We were often surprised with what we found and hopefully the reader is too. A requirement is open mindedness for counter intuitive relationships. Some of them are these days labeled as "politically incorrect", as if that affects their veracity. The situation is worse for others; they counter long standing positions of the 20th century societies. Resistance against alternative views is substantial and we request a willingness to scrutinize the supporting evidence. The overall reasoning is tight. A 'nasty' observation in one chapter can be used in another chapter that covers a different segment of the society. These uncommon cross links is where - we claim - this text to be different.

Blame?

In contrast with most people, we do not engage in assigning blame in response to the 'strange' things we describe. Our title "Best Intentions of the 20th Century" captures that we do not believe that nefarious forces have been at work. That makes fixing the mess, of course, actually not easier.

We have great compassion for the well-being of all life forms on our crowded planet. No matter how disturbed you may become while encountering our hard nosed findings, please share our compassion.

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