File: c:/Users/Dennis/Desktop/Tragedy/Epilogue.html
Date: Mon Sep 15 11:30:37 2014 / 2019
(C) OntoOO/ Dennis de Champeaux

Epilogue

The center piece of the preceding chapters is the section The Global Future. The computer simulations of World3 and of Rander's 2052 as well as Diamond's Collapse and the findings of the Global Footprint Network all predict serious trouble in this century. The warnings started half a century ago and early effects (among which climate change and accelerated species extinctions) have manifested themselves already before 2030 when the World3 troubles could start. This raises the key question why all the warnings have not caused decisive responses from our World leaders and political parties.

The underlying mechanism is the Tragedy of the Commons, which refers to the fate of a resource, or service, that can be used for free. The classic example is a meadow in a village where all villagers can let their cows graze. Without restrictions yet another cow will be added which surpasses the capacity of the meadow and all grass will be trampled.

The section Inside the Welfare States gives the clues why decisive actions have thus far not been taken. These are excellent examples of the Tragedy of the Commons:

The medical advances since the 19th century have been the driver of the exponential population explosion facilitated by 'free' procreation at the expense of the society.
Public education at 'no-cost'.
Unconstrained extraction of the planet's resources to fuel an exponential growing global economy.

Plenitude - the notion of unlimited abundance - was always taken for granted. While we admitted that some charity/ generosity was necessary to help out unfortunate minorities, we have now majorities that depend on system charity. Governments depend on the status quo for the taxable revenue streams to support those majorities, which makes their economies now rubik cubes with stuck edges.

The small, incremental changes during a century were below the radar and were seen as 'natural' processes. However, they changed what one considers 'normal'; for example, a global economy that operates as if we reside on 1.75 planet Earths.

Hence, the real issue is that humanity has no structure in place that it can latch on to for breaking the business-as-usual paralysis. It is difficult to accept that we need to crash first - as suggested by numerous.

The unexpected can still occur. Multinational corporations could team up and demand sustainable global guidelines. A massive 'natural' calamity could trigger, say, the military taking care of the aftermath and demanding fundamental changes. We have actually an example already of such an intervention. The international financial system froze up in 2008 September. Henry Paulson got the mandate to 'bypass' democracy as we know it and break the global gridlock.

Hence, the earlier we recognize the severity of the warnings repeatedly provided by the experts and now also the warnings by the planet's more frequent 'natural' disasters, as well as acknowledge the increasing disenchantment by the populations, the less draconic the necessary interventions will be.

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